Cameron's Post Southall Strategy

Murdoch is said to be plotting to replace David Cameron with William Hague. (See below - Stepahan Shakesprare. Conservative Home)

http://www.typepad.com/t/app/weblog/post?__mode=edit_entry&id=36512630&blog_id=555190

Imagine what that does to David Cameron knowing that there is a plot to have him replaced involving his key right hand man. No wonder he went half crazy spending all his time in Ealing Southall doing his level best to drive up his credibility within the Party.

Murdoch's displeasure with David Cameron goes back to Cameron's unwillingness to pussyfoot with EU leaders, or attend News International social functions, and rub shoulders with the corrupt. Now that Cameron is making a determined fight to block the EU Constitution without the promised referendum being held first, Murdoch's displeasure and his requirements to please the EU, are moving him strongly against Cameron.

But it is Conservative MPs who decide who leads them, not the EU or Rupert Murdoch. There are not enough europhiles to raise the 15% of signatures at the 1922 committee, and the eurosceptics will be unlikely to pull the rug on David Cameron while he is committed to fighting the EU Constitution.

There is another factor. Cameron's electoral strategy is becoming unworkable.

The spread of a BNP vote around Britain is changing the electoral arithmetic sufficiently that the Conservatives no longer need 40% to win an election. If the BNP are to land between 5-10% in all constituencies, and pull their votes predominantly from Labour, or parties other than Conservatives as they did at Sedgefield, the Conservatives could win an election with the 37% they were already achieving until recently.

With 'other' parties growing their support all the time, it is becoming nigh impossible for any party to get up to 40+% anyway. 'others' already have 16% in polls. By 2009 this could well be 20%. In the 1990's, when Conservative votes were 40+%, 'others' were more like 7%.

Cameron is going nuts trying to broaden the appeal of the party to Lib Dems and other sectors desperately hoping to find a way up to the 40+% level. Maybe he should rethink now, and forget this strategy. If he can consolidate the party at the 37% he is achieving, and he settles everyone down, allowing policies to be Conservative type policies, the work of the BNP especially in decimating labour's vote will bring the target within range. All he has to do now is consolidate.

Maybe while he's in Rwanda, he'll think of this and come back a different man.