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Mickey And Friends Super Race

Valentine Vanity

It's that time of year, when lovers plan their moves, how best to express their yearnings during the dark and dismal month of February, before joyous spring bursts upon the scene. In another sea of red, with Christmas not far behind, the winter ekes out a warm glow of hope for better times ahead.

At Curteis, the designers are naturally not unaffected by the season and have found three gift ideas to assist love-struck males keen to impress the object of their love and desire. Maybe she has already decided that she heartily returns his feelings, and needs little further encouragement. But even for the man of vanity who believes himself incomparable and fears no competitor can intervene, why take a risk? It's best to make sure.

Christmas Gift

The latest twist in the roller-coaster ride in the polls which has happened in the last three months is for MORI to give the Conservatives a 17% lead in their last pre-Christmas delayed declaration.

As I have said constantly over recent weeks, the polls have followed the ‘narrative’ taking a 20% Conservative lead six months ago, down to a 6% lead in the infamous Ipsos MORI effort in November.

I have tracked the history of this change of direction from the point of view of the narrative, showing how the first person to mention the Hung Parliament was Michael Heseltine, and the second was Ken Clarke. This happened as Cameron was espousing his policy of Lisbon rebellion.

The HP narrative notably started inside the europhile wing of the Conservative Party, who were angry at Cameron’s stance.

It should be noted that today's MORI Poll showing a 17% Conservative lead does not mean the end of the Hung Parliament Narrative.

In The Guardian today, you read this -

Labour believes that, despite the PBR, it can still recover reasonably swiftly to a position where it is just 10 or so points behind the Tories in the new year, a gap narrow enough to give it hope going into an election campaign.

That tells you to expect another poll first off in the New Year from the ‘narrative-compliant’ pollsters giving a 10% lead to the Conservatives.

The game is not over yet.

They will be back at it again in January, they assure us, manufacturing the expectation of a Hung parliament.

Once the expectation is again in place, they can move from there to preparing their election-rigging strategies to bring the result about.

They will also no doubt be attempting to neutralise the effect that the new independent pollster Angus Reid Strategies is having on their plans.

It was the gap between MORI's 6% and ARS' 17% Conservative lead that did most to undercut the Hung Parliament Narrative, which has no doubt contributed to the decision to temporarily 'suspend' the HPN over the Christmas period.

They want to send everyone back to sleep, as many were becoming alerted to the discrepancies and the 'poor field work' in the polls giving the Conservatives 6%, 8% and 10% leads.

They will, meantime, no doubt try to exclude Angus Reid Strategies from pre-election polling in some way, so that they get things back as they like them, where they can create an expectation of the election result they desire, the one they intend to deliver, just like they did in 2005.

And yes, there does seem to be a whip effect being played out on Cameron to be a good boy, by Heseltine, Clarke and their friends in high places. Since Cameron's Lisbon speech, he is no longer trusted by the Europhiles. The controllers will do everything in their power to keep him at bay, and crush his efforts to hold out hopes for British Sovereignty.

Have no fear. They'll be back again with poll-rigging to the fore in the New Year. New Labour and all their trickery will be as hard to kill off as Rasputin. See Guardian article containing Labour's promised New Year narrative HERE.



SIR BOB WORCESTER of Ipsos MORI.

UPDATE - Bob Worcester of Ipsos MORI explains his new poll results at a 17% Conservative lead up from 6% last time he reported as follows -

The impact of the PBR moved the economic optimism in the country from last month’s 46% believing the economy was going to improve in the next 12 months falling precipitously to 32%. At the same time, the satisfaction level of Gordon Brown fell another 10 points, to just 28% and the government also by 10 points, to 21%.

If he's right, then any more bad economic news and Labour might find they cannot manage expectations to a Hung Parliament after all. No wonder they're rushing to the finishing post, and looking at a March 25th Election date. But another small voice in the back of your mind says that at Angus Reid Strategies, the Conservative lead never left 17%, and that Bob Worcester is using the PBR as his face saver.

Another safe prediction -

If the narrative-compliant pollsters don't bottle out of complying with Labour's polling demands in Jabnuary and produce more Hung Parliament-compliant polling results, Labour will be pumping their economic achievements at the same time. Labour will be announcing the end of the recession at the moment they call the election. The question is, will anyone still believe them, or their wavering pollsters by then?

Maybe more of the pollsters will start pulling up the white flag as Bob Worcester has done this week. It's only a month ago, if you remember that he managed to grant Labour a substantial polling lead in London, based on the views of only 50 people, which did seem pretty barmy. Nice to see him back in the realm of sanity. Let's hope he stays around, and a few others from the narrative-obeying pack come across and join him.

Sir Bob Worcester's Bio on Wiki -

He was made an Honorary Knight Commander of The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire in 2004 in recognition of the “outstanding services rendered to political, social and economic research and for contribution to government policy and programmes”. He took British citizenship later that year, and in 2005 his knighthood was made substantive[1] (allowing him to use the title "Sir").

Clearly Sir Bob Worcester owes much to New Labour for his advancement, but then, for sure, they no doubt owe him and his ilk quite a lot for theirs! Perhaps Christmas is a good time for all narrative-compliant pollsters to be considering the best place for their future loyalties to lie. After all, Rasputins usually end up getting done in one way or another. Why be amongst the casualties?

The Final Days Of British Democracy

The new ICM Poll puts Conservatives on 40% and Labour on 31%, up from 29%, borrowing 1% from Lib Dems and 1% from Others. It doesn't shout at you as being extremely outrageous, and yet I have my doubts.

The problem is that, again just as last time, the narrative saying this is the new trend that would happen, preceded the poll. which is all a tad suspicious to my mind.

HPN1 (Hung Parliament Narrative 1) originated from Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine in November, hard on the heels of Cameron's post-Lisbon policy announcement. This narrative was then picked up and run with by all media, yet the polls were, at that time, saying a Conservative Majority of 60.

Then out of the blue, as if to order, came Ipsos MORI's 6% Conservative lead based on a tiny sample (London was 53, where Labour were awarded a large majority), and HPN1 went mainstream in all media, as if, all along, it had been the only story in town. It wasn't. It was a dramatic change.

The next narrative, HPN2, released a week ago, was in fact a Labour victory narrative. It appeared in The Times, sourced from Labour Election Planners. This stated that the current 8% Conservative lead (which in some polls was still given as 17%) could be overturned by Election Day to 0%, with 5% of Lib Dems and 3% of Others returning to Labour. This was another stunning change, notionally eliminating a once 20% Conservative polling lead to zero, all within a year, and yet that was not even mentioned.

The HNP2 narrative was repeated yesterday, as the ICM Poll came out showing this exact trend, with Lib Dems switiching to Labour and also Others switching to Labour, exactly as predicted the week before.

If the process happened the other way around, I would be a little happier. If first came the supposedly scientific test - the poll - and then the narrative based on its findings, the interpretation, came second, I would not be so sceptical.

But this is like East Anglian University Climate Forecasting. You first decide what result you want, and then you match your findings accordingly to give it. Iraqi WMD comes to mind as another example.



All such distortions of scientific data have a purpose. That purpose is the exercise of power. Money comes from Climate Taxes. War from wrong military intelligence, and electoral advantage would comes from 'polling to order', were that indeed also happening.

The polls and the narratives that appear to inform them, are, in my opinion, now being designed for one purpose - to prepare expectations for election results. Achieving the actual election results they desire, presents the controllers with no difficulty, and can be achieved by postal vote exercises and ballot box handling processes easily enough, but the result that is delivered, can only be delivered if the public don't suspect that anything is untoward about it.

People still believe that the electoral system is working, so the controllers have to carry on with the fiction. In other countries they don't even bother pretending, which in a few years time, will no doubt also be the case in Britain. But right now it controls people more successfully that the fiction of electoral fairness is continued with, for as long as people are still prepared to believe in it.

By a continual drip drip in the media of an expected election result over many months, cleverly disguised in polling trends which are created to order, and through narratives in support, the public can be prepared for the electoral result that the election controllers desire.

That way the public's acquiescence in their own enslavement can be more surely achieved. There is no need for a dramatic throwing out of all MPs from Parliament and the surrounding of the Palace Of Westminster with troops. The process of disempowering MPs and the destruction of democracy can be far more assuredly achieved by sinister behind-the-scenes tampering, which few even realise is happening. By the time they do, it will all be over.

Since Cameron's Lisbon address, he has worried the controllers with his talk of repatriation of powers and a Soveriegnty Bill. They are no longer prepared to grant him an election victory, and ever since that moment all the narratives have been changed accordingly.

Did Cameron break cover too early? I don't think he had a choice. His pre-Lisbon stance was easier to disguise, but Lisbon was over, and he had to make himself clear.

The controllers really want a Labour victory to keep the EU safe, while all the power structures are set up which will ensure Britain is locked in, but the swinging of expectations to that extent, is probably deemed impossible at this stage, although they are trying to go as far as a Labour Victory Narrative if they can.

The Hung Parliament narratives are, for now, the ones being deployed, and the public are gradually being prepared for Cameron's removal from the game of political theatre, while the controllers seek out a new safer pair of hands to 'lead' the Conservative Party - the next Blair, who will agree to all the controllers demand in return for personal advancement, which was what they thought they had in Cameron.

The public are not likely to see that any of what is being done, as they are unable to contemplate that things have gone so far. The evidence does not comply with the conventional explanations of politics. It does, however, comply with the explanation I give, does it not?

PICTURE - Hat Tip - politicalbetting.com

German Parliament To Tell The Kids When To Come Home

The German Constitutional Court has spoken. What has it said? A copy in English of its decision appears on Grahnlaw. I am trying to read it disturbed by kids on all sides demanding attention, which is not ideal, but life is like that these days!

To my way of thinking, it asks a question of the German Parliament and that question is simply 'are you sure you want to legislate away the democratic rights of the German people?.

If so you are entitled to do so, but so that the courts can be certain, we need each of the powers vested in you to be legislated away in clear form, not with one broad brush stroke merely handing over your power to another body in perpetuity (the EU).

The EU does not have a democratic basis (but one based solely on international agreement) and handing power to the EU permanently, so that no ratification of its actions are required would not be allowed.

The EU cannot commit its member states to making war, for example, in any circumstances, and other crucial areas of government decision making cannot be handed over to the EU.

In other words the Lisbon Treaty and no other Treaty can be permitted to take away the powers of the German parliament, as the only basis for action that the EU has in Germany is and has to be founded entirely on the agreement of the German Parliament.

It's like saying to the kids, 'ok you can all go to the party, but just remember that you have to come home when we, or rather when the German Parliament says so.'

Ralph Grahn, the EU lawyer, doesn't see it that way of course. He's gone off with a lyrical poetic ode, praising the joys of the new world order where lawyers can make even more money without having to bother listening to anyone - not even the German Constitutional Court, it appears!

He writes as follows - If and when a uniform European people is constituted as the subject of legitimisation, and it is able to express its majority will in a politically effective manner that takes due account of equality in the context of the foundation of a European federal state, the road to a European federation is clear.

Dream on, Ralph! Your totalitarian state has been well and truly rumbled, and a few well-crafted words cannot hide the fact.

The EU party's not quite over yet sadly, but your ship is holed below the water line and listing. All we need is the coming financial crash and you lot are all mincemeat. Enjoy the jelly and ice cream. It might be your last scoop.

The party will soon be over. The German Constitutional Court has just informed you that the EU doesn't hit the necessary standard of acceptability, and nor is it likely to. They said it, however in such polite language that you missed the primary message completely.

I find that when children won't listen to a kind rebuke, next stop is usually a firmer reprimand. Don't cry though, Ralph. We all love you really.

UPDATE - From Hermitter writing in Nosemonkey comments...

ne should not overlook that quite influential and powerful political forces were backing this constitutional complaint. E.g., Dr Peter Gauweiler is not only a “simple” Bundestag MP, but is acting on behalf of the most powerful conservative fraction within the CDU/CSU. Dr Gregor Gysi is the head of the Socialists, who are very strong in former East Germany; and Baden-Wurttemberg, as one of the most powerful laender, filed the complaint on behalf of the Bundesrat and rest of the Bundeslaender.

So, it wasn’t just “one individual” complaining to the Court, but the most powerful political forces (besides the federal government) in the country. Different from the US Supreme Court, the German Constitutional Court has a ruling-history of seeking consensus and seldom writes opinions that are dissenting too far from “public opinion”. The court uses often “proportionality” to decide what is conform with the Basic Law (and what not). E.g., possessing a small bag of cannabis for one’s own use is fine, says the BVerfG, because law enforcement must be balanced against the right to “free development of personality”. The same “proportionality” is normally applied as a lubricant when the BVerfG meshes with EU law. Each side is jealous of its prerogatives but also eager to avoid confrontation. If seen under this perspective, this ruling of June 30, 2009, is rather a “tsunami” than a “gentle breeze”. You have to read the whole decision very closely (including the complainants’ arguments) to understand this . . . and don’t be fooled by the polite, moderate wording of the verdict. This is just part of this court’s disposition.

As a matter of fact, this dicision ended the “dream” of a European Federation for good (at least as long as Germany is part of the Club.

Censored?

This person is Vaclac Klaus, President of the Czech Republic. I just wrote a blog post and wanted attach this picture of him. I went into Blog-edit and all the posts in 2008 had gone! I am sure there is an explanation other than a bit of hacking from somewhere. The posts still appear to readers but I cannot edit right now. I'll try again in the morning! Meanwhile Klaus has played the ball into his opponents' court with his comments on the EU's folly in Kosovu. Read it below.

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